中国淡水养殖业碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系及驱动因素研究—基于Tapio脱钩和LMDI模型
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F 326.4;S 965;X 714

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国家社科重大项目子课题,气候变化下“深蓝渔业”产业发展潜力评估研究(21 & ZD100);国家现代农业产业技术体系专项 (CARS-47-G29);上海哲学社会科学规划课题“新零售模式下生鲜电商O2O决策优化研究”(2020EGL011)


Decoupling relationship and driving factors between carbon emissions and economic growth in China's freshwater aquaculture industry:based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI model
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    摘要:

    目的 在淡水养殖绿色可持续发展的要求下,为促进淡水养殖业碳排放与经济增长的绝对脱钩,实现淡水养殖业低碳绿色转型。方法 基于脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,分别从中国整体层面及区域层面对2011—2021年淡水养殖碳排放与经济增长的脱钩指数进行核算并探究其脱钩状态的驱动因素。结果 ①从宏观层面上,研究期间我国淡水养殖碳排放呈现先增再减后增的态势;全国淡水养殖碳排放与经济增长的耦合状态较稳定。②从区域层面看,耦合关系分为稳定型、改善型、衰退型、无序型,各省级行政区差异显著。③从影响因素来看,生产效率和劳动力强度对淡水养殖碳减排有促进作用;经济发展强度和产业结构会增加碳排放。结论 各省级行政区之间淡水养殖碳排放与经济增长的耦合关系发展不平衡,提高生产效率和劳动力强度有助于改善其耦合关系。应从政府部门、科研人员、从业人员等多途径出发,助力淡水养殖碳减排以及经济增长,加快推动产业转型,促进渔业现代化发展,为实现“双碳”目标作出贡献。

    Abstract:

    A series of chain reactions, such as global warming, rising sea levels, endangered species, and oxygen depletion, have caused serious damage to ecosystems and posed tremendous challenges to the survival of humans and other living organisms. Consequently, the task of reducing global carbon emissions has become imperative and urgent. In response, China demonstrated its firm determination in 2020 by committing to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. As climate change and environmental pollution issues become increasingly prominent, the need for China to reduce carbon emissions and achieve low-carbon, green, and sustainable development has become more critical. Freshwater aquaculture, as an important production activity, has attracted widespread attention due to its carbon emissions. Under the influence of scientific and technological progress and policy guidance, China has begun to explore a decoupling path for the freshwater aquaculture industry, aiming to separate economic growth from carbon emissions and seek a sustainable development model. To promote the absolute decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth in freshwater aquaculture, this paper employs the decoupling model and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model. It calculates the decoupling index of freshwater aquaculture carbon emissions and economic growth in China from 2011 to 2021 at both the national and regional levels. The study also analyzes the underlying reasons for the decoupling status among different provinces and explores the driving factors of this decoupling state. The results showed that: ① At the macro level, freshwater aquaculture carbon emission in China exhibited an initial increase, followed by a decrease, and then an increase again during the study period. The coupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in freshwater aquaculture remained relatively stable. ② At the regional level, the coupling relationship was categorized into four types, with significant differences observed among provinces. ③ In terms of influencing factors, production efficiency and labor intensity had a positive effect on reducing carbon emissions in freshwater aquaculture, while economic development intensity and industrial structure contributed to increased carbon emissions. The research also found that the coupling relationship between freshwater aquaculture carbon emissions and economic growth was unbalanced. Economic intensity is the primary driver of increased carbon emissions, and improving production efficiency and labor intensity can help enhance its coupling relationship. This paper provides a basis and reference for the formulating carbon emission reduction policies in freshwater aquaculture. It holds significant practical importance for promoting the coordinated development of freshwater aquaculture ecology and economy, accelerating industrial transformation, and contributing to the achievement of China's "dual carbon" goals.

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伍大清,刘丽晨.中国淡水养殖业碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系及驱动因素研究—基于Tapio脱钩和LMDI模型[J].水产学报,2025,49(5):059618

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-23
  • 最后修改日期:2024-03-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-23
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