基于体长模型和集成模型的山东近海黄鲫资源评估
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S 932.4

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山东省重点研发计划 (2022CXPT013);国家自然科学基金(42176151);山东省泰山学者专项;黄渤海渔业资源与生态创新团队 (2020TD01)


Stock assessment of Setipinna taty in Shandong inshore waters based on length-based model and ensemble model
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    摘要:

    目的 对同是经济鱼类和饵料鱼类,在鱼类群落中占有重要地位的黄鲫资源进行科学评估与管理。方法 本研究使用基于体长的产卵潜力比模型(LB-SPR)、基于体长的综合混合效应模型(LIME)和基于这两个模型的集成模型(Ensemble modeling),评估1999、2000、2006、2017和2021年山东近海黄鲫的资源状况。结果 3个模型估计的1999—2021年黄鲫产卵潜力比(SPR) 呈现先上升后下降的趋势,SPR在2000年为最低水平,此后持续好转,2017年达到最好状态后开始下降,2021年降为1999—2000年的相近水平。5个年份的LIME模型估计均高于LB-SPR模型估计。Ensemble模型SPR估计均低于LIME的结果,但并非全部位于LIME结果和LB-SPR结果之间。Ensemble模型估计的SPR分别为0.48、0.45、0.68、0.77和0.47,均大于规避风险值0.4,这表明山东近海黄鲫资源在这期间均处于健康状态,但黄鲫产卵群体的优势叉长组有小型化趋势,因此,建议综合权衡多个主要鱼种状况,对渔具网目尺寸进行调整。结论 本研究将资源评估多模型组合应用到数据有限的渔业种群评估中,可为山东近海黄鲫资源可持续利用提供科学依据,也有助于推动数据有限种群的资源评估工作的进展。

    Abstract:

    Assessing the status of fish stocks is fundamental to the scientific management of fishery resources. Setipinna taty, an economically and ecologically significant forage species, plays a crucial role within fish communities, and changes in its stock status can have critical ecological impacts. It is essential that the management of S. taty resources is based on robust scientific analysis of stock status. The data requirements of traditional stock assessment methods have hindered their use in assessing S. taty due to data scarcity. The rapid development of data-limited methods for estimating stock status has made it possible to achieve a credible assessment of S. taty resources despite the inadequacy of the data to support conventional analysis methods. In this study, the length-based spawning potential ratio model (LB-SPR), the length-based integrated mixed effects model (LIME), and Ensemble modeling based on a combination of these two models were used to evaluate the status of S. taty in Shandong inshore waters in 1999, 2000, 2006, 2017, and 2021. The spawning potential ratio (SPR) estimated by these models served as a biological reference point (BRP) for this study and as a proxy for maximum sustainable yield (MSY) in the absence of information on population size. Model results could potentially inform a sustainable fishing harvest strategy that targets a fishing mortality rate expected to result in 40% of unfished spawning output (known as "SPR40%"), ensuring risk-averse management of populations with very low resilience. The SRP of SPR30% is a threshold below which stocks are often considered overfished. Both LB-SPR and LIME model results showed that from 1999 to 2021, stock status reached its lowest level in 2000, then improved to its best state in 2017, before beginning to decline, and by 2021 had fallen to a similar level as that during 1999-2000. The SPR estimates from the LIME model were higher than those of LB-SPR for all years. Ensemble model SPR estimates were all lower than LIME results, but not all of them occurred between the LIME and LB-SPR results. The ensemble estimates of SPR from 1999 to 2021 showed an increasing trend (0.48–0.77) followed by a decrease to 0.47, all greater than the risk-averse value of 0.4. These values implied that the S. taty stock in Shandong inshore waters was in a healthy state throughout the study period. During the study period, favorable environmental conditions supported the growth and reproduction of S. taty in Shandong inshore, providing a certain guarantee for the health status of the S. taty resources. However, continually increasing exploitation intensity and spatial contraction and habitat deterioration of the core spawning and nursery grounds may adversely affect the stock status in the future. Currently, the S. taty stock in Shandong inshore has just reached full utilization, yet the fork length compositional structure remains above the population decline risk threshold (SPR40%). Compression of this compositional structure nonetheless signals a need for precaution within the context of increasingly complex climatic change and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Considering the key position of S. taty in the Shandong fish community and its trophic characteristics should motivate fisheries researchers to evaluate the impacts of current commercial mesh net size of fishing gear and propose reasonable size constraints that can provide an optimal balance between ecological protection and economic benefit. The present study provides a credible scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of S. taty resources in Shandong inshore waters. It is the first public Chinese assessment report on the application of a multi-model combination to data-limited fishery stocks in China, and could help advance the progress of resource assessment for data-limited stocks throughout the country.

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韩青鹏,吴强,单秀娟,金显仕,苏程程.基于体长模型和集成模型的山东近海黄鲫资源评估[J].水产学报,2025,49(1):019312

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  • 收稿日期:2023-01-12
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-21
  • 出版日期: 2025-01-01
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