基于多目标鱼种资源量指数估计的不同采样设计比较
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S931

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国家重点研发计划(2018YFD0900904);山东省支持青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室重大科技专项(2018SDKJ0501-2)


Comparison of sampling designs of fishery-independent survey in estimating abundance indices of multiple target species
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    摘要:

    经济高效的渔业资源调查采样有利于保证调查数据的质量,提高调查效率,从而为渔业科学研究提供可靠数据。根据2016—2017年山东近海渔业资源底拖网季度调查数据,以小黄鱼、矛尾虾虎鱼、方氏云鳚和星康吉鳗作为目标鱼种,使用Kriging插值法模拟了目标鱼种在4个季节的相对资源量分布,设置简单随机抽样(SRS)、常规系统抽样(SYS_r)、等距系统抽样(SYS_h)、按水深分层随机抽样(StRS_depth)、按区域分层随机抽样(StRS_region)和综合水深和区域分层随机抽样(StRS_total)共6种备选采样设计方案,利用计算机模拟方法对Kriging插值数据进行再抽样,估计各目标鱼种资源量指数,以相对估计误差(relative estimation error, REE)和相对偏差(relative bias, RB)衡量估计结果的精准度,以准确度变化率(accuracy change rate,ACR)小于等于10%的标准确定最优调查站位数,比较不同采样设计在估计多目标鱼种资源量指数方面的表现并进行样本量优化。结果发现,3种抽样方法的估计准度不同,简单随机抽样<分层随机抽样<系统抽样。除系统抽样外,其余采样设计方案均为无偏估计。随调查站位数增加,系统抽样的REE表现出无规律波动趋势。分层随机抽样的REE略低于系统抽样,且随站位数增加而降低。分层随机抽样是最优抽样方法,StRS_total是最优分层方案。不同目标鱼种、季节调查所需站位数不同,StRS_total进行4季度调查的最优站位数可设为80。

    Abstract:

    Stock assessment and fisheries management need supporting data that can be collected through fishery-dependent or fishery-independent surveys. The main objective of cost-effective fishery-independent survey design is to collect high-quality data with limited survey cost, and optimization of survey design is often conducted to improve the sampling efficiency. In order to compare the performances of different sampling designs in a fishery-independent survey in estimating abundance indices of multiple target species, four fish species with different spatial distributions, including Larimichthy polyactis, Chaemrichthys stigmatias, Enedrias fangi and Conger myriaster were selected as target fish species. Relative abundance data collected from the bottom trawl surveys conducted in the offshore waters of Shandong Province in 2016-2017 were used to simulate the spatial distributions of relative abundance of target species using Kriging interpolation method. It is assumed that the interpolated relative abundance data were the ‘true’ distribution of four target fish species. The simple random sampling (SRS), the regular systematic sampling (SYS_r), the hexagonal systematic sampling (SYS_h), the stratified random sampling with strata defined by depth (StRS_depth), region (StRS_region), and depth and region (StRS_total) were chosen as the potential sampling designs for estimating abundance index of each fish species at different sample sizes from 20 to 200. The relative estimation error (REE) and relative bias (RB) were used to measure performances of different sampling designs. The accuracy change rate (ACR) less than or equal to 10% was set as the standard for determining the optimal sample size. Computer simulation study was used to compare the accuracy and the precision of different sampling schemes in estimating the abundance indexes. The results showed that the estimation accuracy of three sampling methods was different: simple random sampling < stratified random sampling < system sampling. Except for the systematic sampling, estimates of abundance indices of target fish species in other sampling methods were unbiased. The REE values of target species abundance index estimation in systematic sampling fluctuated irregularly with sample size increasing. The ACR was not suitable to determine the optimal sample size for systematic sampling design. The REE for the stratified random sampling was slightly higher than that of systematic sampling, but it showed higher stability. The stratified random sampling was the best sampling method. The stratified random sampling StRS_total could reduce the REE value compared with other two stratified sampling schemes. It was the best stratification scheme. The optimal number of stations for design StRS_total in four seasons could be set at 80. This study also offered references to determine the optimal sampling design for multispecies fishery-independent surveys in other waters.

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张国晟,王晶,张崇良,薛莹,任一平,徐宾铎.基于多目标鱼种资源量指数估计的不同采样设计比较[J].水产学报,2021,45(5):700~715

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  • 收稿日期:2020-04-12
  • 最后修改日期:2020-09-29
  • 录用日期:2020-10-31
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-10
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