基于广义可加模型研究时间和环境因子对南极半岛北部南极磷虾渔场的影响
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大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海海洋大学

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国家“863”计划项目(2007AA092202)和上海市重点学科建设项目(S30702)


Effects of temporal and environmental factors on the fishing ground of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in the northern Antarctic Peninsula based on generalized additive model
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The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Shanghai Ocean University,Ministry of Education

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    摘要:

    基于CCAMLR统计公报提供的数据,利用广义可加模型(GAM),本研究对1998—2009年CCAMLR 48.1、48.2和48.3小区内的南极磷虾资源丰度时空分布及其与环境因子(表温和叶绿素浓度)之间的关系进行了研究。结果表明,模型对CPUE总偏差解释率分别为51.11%、69.25%和65.82%,其中贡献最大的因子均为月份。1998—2009年期间,三个小区内各年平均CPUE保持相对稳定。48.1小区各年间平均CPUE值变化最小,而48.3小区则较48.2小区大。三个小区之间及48.2小区和48.3小区内各年平均CPUE不存在显著性差异,但48.1小区内平均CPUE则存在显著性年份差异。从CPUE月均变化可以看出,三个小区均呈单峰分布,48.1—48.3小区的峰值出现分别出现在4月份、5月份和6月份。三个小区之间平均CPUE月变化不显著,但各区内平均CPUE则存在显著性的月变化。48.1—48.3小区南极磷虾渔场的适宜表温范围分别为-3—2℃、-2—2℃和0—5℃,但CPUE主要分别集中在表温-2—1℃、-1—0℃和1℃左右以及0.8—2.4℃范围内。48.1小区(53%)、48.2小区(39%)和48.3小区(51%)三个小区较大比例的CPUE值处于叶绿素a浓度为0—0.2mg?m-3的范围内。

    Abstract:

    The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution of abundance for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) resource in the subareas 48.1, 48.2 and 48.3 from 1998 to 2009 using the generalized additive model (GAM) based on the data derived from Statistical Bulletin (Volume 23) of Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), the relationship between standardized catch per unit fishing effort (CPUE) of Antarctic krill fishery and environmental factors (sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a) are also be analyzed. The results showed that the cumulation of deviance explained (%) of model to CPUE is 51.11, 69.25 and 65.82 respectively and the variation that provide the maximum contribution is month for 3 subareas. Standardized annual average CPUE was stable in the 3 subareas during 1998 – 2009. The inter-annual variation on average CPUE in the subarea 48.1 was smallest and that of subarea 48.3 was larger than subarea 48.2. Annual variation on average CPUE had no significant difference among 3 subareas, within the subarea 48.2 and the subarea 48.3, however, remarkably difference can be found on annual average CPUE in the subarea 48.1. The monthly average CPUE only had present the unimodal distribution in the 3 subareas, the peak value of CPUE in the subareas 48.1, 48.2 and 48.3 occurred in April, May and June respectively. The monthly average CPUE had no significant difference among 3 subareas, however, remarkably difference can be found on monthly average CPUE within 3 subareas. The suitable range of SST is -3 to 2 ℃ in the subarea 48.1, -2 to 2 ℃ in the subarea 48.2, 0 to 5 ℃ in the subarea 48.3 respectively for Antarctic krill fishing ground and the dominant CPUE values ranged in the SST of -2 to 1℃ in the subarea 48.1, -1 to 0 ℃ in the subarea 48.2, 0.8 to 2.4 ℃ in the subarea 48.3 respectively. The dominant proportion of CPUE values were in the range of 0 to 0.2 mg?m-3 for chlorophyll a concentration in the subarea 48.1 (53%), 48.2 (39%) and 48.3 (51%).

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朱国平.基于广义可加模型研究时间和环境因子对南极半岛北部南极磷虾渔场的影响[J].水产学报,2012,36(12):1863~1871

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  • 收稿日期:2011-08-27
  • 最后修改日期:2011-12-29
  • 录用日期:2012-12-14
  • 在线发布日期: 2012-12-20
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