以有氧冷藏养殖罗非鱼为研究对象,建立和验证了用于预测冷藏罗非鱼微生物学质量和剩余货架期的特定腐败菌生长动力学模型.感官、总挥发性盐基氮(TVBN)评价和微生物生长动态分析表明, 罗非鱼在0～15 ℃贮藏中的特定腐败菌为假单胞菌,在0、5、10、15 ℃,感官货架期终点的假单胞菌数平均值为7.70?0.11 log10 cfu?g-1.假单胞菌在0、5、10、15 ℃的生长实验值用于建立生长动力学模型表明,Gompertz方程能很好地描述假单胞菌在0～15℃温度区域的生长动态.Nmax(最大菌数)受贮藏温度的影响不大,在4种温度下平均值在8.85?0.18 log10cfu?g-1.温度对μmax(最大比生长速率)和Lag(延滞时间)的影响,采用Belehradek方程描述呈现良好线性关系.用贮藏在3、8 ℃假单胞菌的生长实验值,验证建立的模型,偏差度为0.97～1.01,准确度为1.02～1.04,货架期预测值和实测值的相对误差分别为3.47%和-7.91%,显示建立的模型可以快速可靠地实时预测0～15 ℃贮藏罗非鱼的微生物学质量和剩余货架期.

A series of experiments had been carried out to develop and validate the growth kinetics model of specific spoilage organisms for predicting the microbial quality and remaining shelf life of cultured tilapia stored aerobically in cold temperature. The results from microbiological behaviors analysis, organoleptical quality and TVBN evaluation identified Pseudomonas spp. as special spoilage organisms of tilapia stored at 0 - 15℃. At the end of shelf life, the average number of Pseudomonas spp. was 7.70 ? 0.11 log10cfu?g^-1 at temperatures 0,5, 10 and 15℃. The kinetics models of Pseudomonas spp. had been developed and the results showed growth dynamics of this organism under 0 - 15 ℃ could be well described by a Gompertz type model. The temperature had no significant effect on Nmax （maximum cell concentration）, the average value of Nmax was determined to be 8.85 ? 0.18 log10cfu? g^-1 under those four temperatures. The temperature dependence of Pseudomonas spp. kinetic parameters - μmax（ maximum specific growth rate） and Lag （lag phase） were modeled using Belehradek model. The correlation regression showed could finely describe the influence of temperature on growth. Validation of built kinetic models was preferred by comparing with experimental development of Pseudomonas spp. grown on tilapia at temperatures 3℃,8 ℃. Bias and accuracy factors were used as comparison indices and range from 0.97 to 1.01 and from 1.02 to 1.04, respectively. The results derived from validation showed that the developed models could finely predict the growth kinetic of Pseudomonas spp. at 0 - 15 ℃. Basic errors between predicted shelf life and real shelf life were 3.47% and - 7.91% at 3, 8℃ respectively, it suggested microbial growth models built in our research were valuable for rapid and realistic prediction of the microbial quality and remaining shelf life of cultured tilapia stored aerobically from 0 to 15℃.

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