文章摘要
厄尔尼诺事件对西北太平洋柔鱼种群动态的影响
Impacts of the El Ni?o event on the population dynamics of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
投稿时间:2020-08-05  修订日期:2020-12-27
DOI:
中文关键词: 柔鱼  厄尔尼诺  种群动态  剩余产量模型  西北太平洋
英文关键词: Ommastrephes bartramii  El Ni?o  population dynamic  surplus production model  Northwest Pacific Ocean
基金项目:国家自然科学基金,国家基础研究重大项目基金
作者单位邮编
隋 芯 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院 201306
汪金涛 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院 201306
陈新军 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院 
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中文摘要:
      西北太平洋柔鱼是重要经济鱼种之一,其资源量变动易受到气候变化如厄尔尼诺事件的影响。本文假设尼诺指数(Oceanic Ni?o Index,ONI)分别和同时影响柔鱼种群动态参数,内禀自然增长率(Intrinsic rate of growth, r)和最大环境容纳量(Carrying capacity, K),建立四种剩余产量模型(SP、Er-EDSP、EK-EDSP、Er- EK-EDSP)探索厄尔尼诺事件影响下西北太平洋柔鱼的种群资源状态变化趋势。结果表明Er-EDSP、EK-EDSP、Er-EK-EDSP三个加入气候因子模型的偏差信息标准(Deviance Information Criterion,DIC)值小于传统的剩余产量模型的DIC值,其中Er-EK-EDSP模型DIC值最小,模型精度最高,估计的最大可持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield,MSY)的值为39.26×104吨,从1994-2017年,北太平洋柔鱼的捕捞死亡率Ft远低于目标死亡率(Ftar)和MSY水平下的捕捞死亡率(FMSY),到2017年种群资源量小于MSY水平资源量(BMSY)。结论:西北太平洋柔鱼种群资源已经过度捕捞或正在过度捕捞。该研究结果可为西北太平洋柔鱼提供服从生态系统规律的管理建议。
英文摘要:
      The Ommastrephes bartramii is one of the important economic fish species in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and its stock variation is susceptible to climate change such as El Ni?o. We assume that the Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI) affects the dynamic parameters of the fish population, the Intrinsic rate of growth (r) and the Carrying capacity (K), respectively and simultaneously, and establishes four surplus production models (SP, Er-EDSP, EK-EDSP and Er- EK-EDSP) is used to explore the trend of the population stock status of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific under the influence of El Ni?o. The results show that the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) values of three models(Er-EDSP, EK-EDSP and Er-EK-EDSP) introduced into the climate factors are less than the DIC value of the traditional surplus production model. Among them, the Er-EK-EDSP model has the smallest DIC value and the highest model accuracy. The estimated Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) value is 39.26×104 tons. From 1994 to 2017, the fishing mortality rate (Ft) of O. bartramii was far lower than the target mortality rate (Ftar) and the fishing mortality rate at the MSY level (FMSY). By 2017, the stock resources were less than the corresponding resources at the MSY level (BMSY). It is concluded that the stock population of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific have been overfished or are being overfished. The results of this paper can provide management advices for the population dynamics of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific that obey the laws of the ecosystem.
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