外来海洋物种入侵风险评估体系的构建
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国家“908”专项评价项目资助(908-02-03-09)


Construction of invasive risk assessment system for alien marine species
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    摘要:

    为了评估外来海洋物种入侵的风险,根据外来海洋物种入侵特点,在文献分析和专家咨询的基础上,采用层次分析和三角模糊数数值标度计算权重的方法,设计5个一级指标和20个二级指标,构建了外来海洋物种入侵风险评估体系。利用该评估体系对7种(类)典型海洋外来种进行了风险评估。评估结果表明,互花米草和对虾白斑病毒为极高风险等级;沙筛贝、米氏凯伦藻和帕金虫为高风险等级,罗非鱼为中风险等级;大菱鲆为低风险等级。由于传统层次分析法的“1~9标度”方法不能精确地反映人的实际思维,从而影响最终的判定结果,本评估体系借鉴了三角模糊数表示的改进方法来计算权重值,并对一级指标和二级指标的相对权重均进行了权重设计,得出的结果更加精确地反映了人的实际思维。外来海洋物种入侵风险评估体系的建立将为外来海洋物种入侵风险管理提供决策依据和参考。

    Abstract:

    To assess the invasion risk of alien marine species, an invasive risk assessment system was constructed based on the characters of introduced marine species and on the analysis of literatures and expert consultancy. The system has 5 primary and 20 secondary indexes, and was constructed using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and trigonometrical fuzzy numbers for determining the weight of each index of the system. The invasive risks for 7 typical alien marine species were assessed, subsequently. The results of the system identified the risk grade of cordgrass Spartina alterniflora and White Spot Baculovirus as very high, Mytilopsis sallei, Karenia mikimotoi and Perkinsus spp., as high, Tilapia spp., as medium, and Scophthalmus maximus, as low levels of risk grade. Because traditional “1-9 scale” method is unable to reflect the real thought accurately, which leads to incorrect judgments, an improved scale method based on trigonometrical fuzzy numbers was used in the present assessment system, and the relative weights of both primary and secondary indexes were designed. Thus the assessing results reflect the real thought more accurately. It is believed that the construction of this risk assessment system will provide beneficial suggestions in decision makings for the managements of tackling alien marine species.

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马英,熊何健,林源洪,唐森铭.外来海洋物种入侵风险评估体系的构建[J].水产学报,2009,33(4):617~623

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  • 收稿日期:2008-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2009-01-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2009-07-04
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